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How to make profit with coinflips Empty How to make profit with coinflips

on Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:53 am
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Intro
Hey everyone. I've discovered a way to ensure that you are always making money with the coinflip command. Ive been using this method for nearly my entire time playing boxbot, and the proof of concept is in my coinflip stats. Since the bot started tracking your coinflip results, I've won $465k and lost $230k through 60 coinflips. Now i want to share my method with everyone!

The Method
This method works because you can change the amount you wager each coinflip. Players make the mistake of coin flipping the same amount each time hoping to come out on top, or they flip for the amount they need to buy an item. Neither of the strategies are winning strategies. With the first one, you will only get closer and closer to a true 50% win rate, so your coinflip is basically pointless, because youre not gaining or losing money (the only thing keeping it from being pointless is the fact that flipping gives you experience). With the latter, you either get unlucky once, or lucky once. With my method, you can play KNOWING that you are going to gain money.

Heres how it works: As i said, this method works because you can change how much you wager each coinflip. So we're going to take advantage of that. For your first coinflip, you should flip $5,000 or less. It's important you dont flip more than $5,000. Ill explain why a little later. Now lets say you flip for $5,000 and win. Thats good, the next thing to do is to wait for the next coinflip - after the cooldown - and flip for $5,000 again. This will remain the same for every time you win. If you're always winning, then you've accomplished your goal. However, if we lose, now we have to be a little tricky...

If you flip for $5,000 and lose, then you will want to flip for $10,000 on the next coin flip after the cooldown. Why? well because we have to make back the $5,000 we lost on the first flip, but we also want to make money, so, we have to flip $5,000 more than what we lost. The process continues like this, until you win. Just keep doubling the last amount you wagered, and whenever you win a flip, you will have profited $5,000 (or the same amount as whatever your first wager was).

Lets take a look at the different ways this can play out:

flip for $5,000. lose.
flip for $10,000. win.
result: we have won $5,000

flip for $5,000. lose.
flip for $10,000. lose.
flip for $20,000. lose.
flip for $40,000. lose.
flip for $80,000. win.
result: we have won $5,000

Technicalities
1. Its important that you restart this process whenever you win a coinflip, otherwise it will not work.
2. its important that you start at $5,000 or below. here's why: the coinflip command has a maximum of $250,000. if you start too high, you risk running into that maximum, and not able to wager enough to make your money back from a loss. lets look at this more closely:

flip for $100,000. lose.
flip for $200,00. lose.
flip for max $250,000. win.
result: we've lost $50,000.

$5,000 is a good starting number because you would have to lose 6 coinflips in a row before you hit the maximum. statistically, that will only happen 1.5% of the time (keep in mind, thats NOT 1.5% of your coinflips, thats 1.5% of the number of trials you run. so, not that often).

3. if you start with a lower number, then you will hit the maximum even less. for example, starting at $2500 means you will only hit the max 0.07% of the time. starting at $10,000 means you will hit the max 3% of the time.
4. your first wager is how much you stand to gain at the end of the trial.

What if i hit the max and lose?
if you do hit the max, and lose the flip. then you havent simply lost that money. you can still make it back. here's how:

flip for $5,000. lose.
flip for $10,000. lose.
flip for $20,000. lose.
flip for $40,000. lose.
flip for $80,000. lose.
flip for $160,000. lose.
flip for $250,000. lose.

at this point, we have lost $565,000 (keep in mind the odds of this happening are 0.07%). to continue, we have to keep flipping for $250,000 until we make back the money. so:

         ideally:
         flip for $250,000. win.
         flip for $250,000. win.              (if we lose either of these, we simply keep flipping $250,000)

         now were down just $65,000, and can employ our method as if we started at that number. so:

                   flip for $130,000. win.                      

                   now we've profited $65,000.

Variation of the Method
throughout my experience with this method, ive found that i am usually winning a coinflip within 3 flips. so i decided to come up with a variation of the method that increases the profit in the first 3 flips. the side effect of that being that with the 4th and 5th flips, i am only breaking even if i win. This is the method i am currently using, and here it is:

flip for $5,000.                               (if we win this flip, we profit $5,000)
if loss, flip for $20,000.                (if we win this flip, we profit $15,000)
if loss, flip for $100,000.              (if we win this flip, we profit $75,000)
if loss, flip for $125,000.              (if we win this flip, we break even)
if loss, flip for $250,000.              (if we win this flip, we break even)

If you've made it this far, then youre probably a serious player. you should consider joining my boxbot server! we've implemented some "twists" to make the game more interesting. if youre interested, heres the join link: https://discord.gg/kRkexbq

Thank you for reading and good luck flipping!!!
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:19 pm
Are you aware how simple statistics work?
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:23 pm
Do you seriously think that this is an actual strategy to make guaranteed money? Did you ever think that if this actually guaranteed money gambling wouldn't be a thing anymore because the house would always lose?

Now, let me prove to your simple mind that this is, in fact, not a way to make guaranteed money.



Let n be number of trials, it can be no more than 6 due to the fact that you can no longer make up for your losses after 6 trials

Let q be the probability of losing n times, which is 1/(2^n)

Let p be the probability of a win in those n trials, which is (1 - q), or (1 - (1/2^n))

Let w be the first betting amount, and the supposed amount which you would win each time; in this case it is $5000

Let z be the amount lost after continuously losing n trials, which is (2^(n-1) - w)

Now, let us plug this in to the expectational formula

E(x) = (p)(w) - (q)(z)

E(x) = (probability of a win in n trials)(winning amount) - (probability of a loss in n trials)(losing amount)

or

E(x) = { [1 - 1/(2^n)] * [w] } + { [1/(2^n)] * [(2^(n+1)) - w] }

Conveniently you can simplify E(x) to 0; theoretically, there  is no gain or loss, just like regular coin flipping

If you are to dumb too be able to simplify this equation, just plug in values, and you will see that it equals zero
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:35 pm
Are you mad? because i couldn't tell!

Me and another, smarter, person have already had this conversation. The expected value is in fact 0, he proved me wrong. If there was no max coinflip cap, then this would seem much more like a winning strategy, even though it still isnt. Because at some point you will lose so many times in a row that you cant flip even your entire player value to make up what you lost. If your player value is high, say like 10 mil, then this would take a longgg time, because you would have to flip so many times inna row and lose, but eventually it will happen (there is at some point that if you have such a high value, like theoretically if you had 999 septillion player value, then it would take so long to flip enough times inna row and lose, that it doesnt even happen in your lifetime, so this strategy would definitely be worth it. idk what player value is required for that, but it exists). So, to sum it up: if there was no coinflip max, this *could* be an effective way to make money, if your player value is high enough already.

Thanks for the reply! even though it was a little bit butt hurt...
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:51 pm
The equation applies to as many trials as you like. Having an infinite number of trials will not turn this into a winning strategy. As I implied, the small chance of a large loss cancels the large chance of a small gain. This is simple probability. You can't beat the 50/50 chance of a coinflip.

Furthermore, like any 'strategy,' gambler's ruin will have you lose money, no matter what.
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:59 pm
This actually won't work every time. Every time you do this you will eventually lose all your money. So I don't see the point of doing this in the first place if you are just going to lose money anyways. You might as well just flip 200k each time and gain more exp that way. Also, I wrote a simulator in rust , and I calculated that using this startey, with 500k balance, you would lose all your money on average ~200 coinflips. This is really sad. Here is my code in rust:

Code:

extern crate rand;

use rand::Rng;

fn flip(money: i64) -> i64 {
    let mut money = money;
    let pattern = [5000, 10000, 20000, 40000, 80000, 160000, 200000];
    let mut current = 0;
    let mut profit = 0;
    let mut first = true;
    let mut times_before_bakrupt = 0;

    loop {
        let rand_num = rand::thread_rng().gen_range(0,2);
        let win = if rand_num == 0 { false } else { true };
        if money <= 0 && !first {
            break
        }
        if win {
            money += pattern[current];
            profit += if current == 6 { 200000 } else { 0 };
            if profit < 0 {
                current = current;
            } else {
                current = 0;
                profit = 0
            }
        } else if !win {
            money -= pattern[current];
            profit -= pattern[current];
            current += if current == 6 { 0 } else { 1 };
        }
        //println!("Profit: {} Money: {} Current Bet: {} Win?: {}", profit, money, pattern[current], win);
        first = false;
        times_before_bakrupt += 1;
    }
    //println!("Trials before ran out of money: {}", times_before_bakrupt);
    times_before_bakrupt
}

fn main() {
    let mut trials = 0;
    let loop_times = 1000;
    let money = 500000;
    for _ in 0..loop_times {
        trials += flip(money);
    }
    trials /= loop_times;
    println!("Average ({} trials) trials before ran out of money: {}", loop_times, trials)
}
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:00 pm
The equation applies to infinite number of trials. yep. but if your player value is 999 septillion then you wont run into that one trial that breaks you for a longgggg time. possibly not even in your lifetime, which makes this an effective strategy for the span of the game. not a a true "winning" strategy, but it works!
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:06 pm
@Monolith wrote:This actually won't work every time. Every time you do this you will eventually lose all your money. So I don't see the point of doing this in the first place if you are just going to lose money anyways. You might as well just flip 200k each time and gain more exp that way. Also, I wrote a simulator in rust , and I calculated that using this startey, with 500k balance, you would lose all your money on average ~200 coinflips. This is really sad. Here is my code in rust:

Code:

extern crate rand;

use rand::Rng;

fn flip(money: i64) -> i64 {
    let mut money = money;
    let pattern = [5000, 10000, 20000, 40000, 80000, 160000, 200000];
    let mut current = 0;
    let mut profit = 0;
    let mut first = true;
    let mut times_before_bakrupt = 0;

    loop {
        let rand_num = rand::thread_rng().gen_range(0,2);
        let win = if rand_num == 0 { false } else { true };
        if money <= 0 && !first {
            break
        }
        if win {
            money += pattern[current];
            profit += if current == 6 { 200000 } else { 0 };
            if profit < 0 {
                current = current;
            } else {
                current = 0;
                profit = 0
            }
        } else if !win {
            money -= pattern[current];
            profit -= pattern[current];
            current += if current == 6 { 0 } else { 1 };
        }
        //println!("Profit: {} Money: {} Current Bet: {} Win?: {}", profit, money, pattern[current], win);
        first = false;
        times_before_bakrupt += 1;
    }
    //println!("Trials before ran out of money: {}", times_before_bakrupt);
    times_before_bakrupt
}

fn main() {
    let mut trials = 0;
    let loop_times = 1000;
    let money = 500000;
    for _ in 0..loop_times {
        trials += flip(money);
    }
    trials /= loop_times;
    println!("Average ({} trials) trials before ran out of money: {}", loop_times, trials)
}

yep youre right, ive already addressed this twice though. heres what the person who first proved me wrong linked me: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:13 pm
That is simply not how probability works. You do not disregard any small chance, no matter now small.

This is NOT an effective strategy because:
1 - gambler's ruin
2 - it is not effective because the net return is zero

You said that 'if your player value is 999 septillion then you wont run into that one trial that breaks you for a longgggg time.'
For your strategy, you chose $5000 as the starting amount. winning $5000 each time is nothing if your value is "999 septillion." For people with 1 Million value, $5000 is almost nothing, for people with 999 septillion, it is 10^20 times as nothing. $5000 at 999 septillion is less than 0.01 at 1,000,000,000. It's about return percentages Simply said, its risk just like if you coinflipping the regular amount. The less you coinflip, the safer it is. The more you coinflip, the more you could potentially gain, but the riskier it is. THE SAME THING APPLIES HERE. It is not guaranteed money, no matter now 'safe' you think it is.

Edit: the previous is true assuming there is no max coinflip amount, since there is no need to address it if there was


Last edited by Infinity on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:16 pm
tell that to my coinflip stats before i started flipping the max for the exp Rolling Eyes
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:18 pm
What do you even mean by saying "tell that to my coinflip stats before i started flipping the max for the exp "
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:19 pm
my stats when i used this strategy exclusively, were like 1.3 mil won and 500 something K lost. thats before i started just flipping the max for the exp
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:22 pm
So you are saying you won 800,000 by doing this strategy? You win $5000 each time. Assuming that you never lost anything, then just winning $800,000 would take 1600 trials
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:26 pm
i didnt use the double every time strategy, read the post again. i gained around $7,500 per flip
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:28 pm
and thats 106.66 trials
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:30 pm
also winning $5000 per flip would be just 160 trials not 1600
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:33 pm
Due to the increased betting amounts, your strategy is even more risky than the stated one. As a result of the large number of trials, having a gain of 44% is extremely unlikely. It is more unlikely than the chance of encountering ruin on your first 'strategy' (though I have not done the math) I would like to know when did you start flipping for exp?
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:36 pm
Moreover, you also do not gain money with your supposed strategy starting with $5,000 > $20,000
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:39 pm
I dont understand what you just tried to say but: my strategy was more risky cus it only took 5 flips to hit max instead of 6. I started flipping the max a few days ago. And i didn't start with $7,500 as first flip, i said i won on average $7,500 per flip.
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:40 pm
Everything we are saying is mute, because there is a max coinflip
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:41 pm
The best strategy is to flip the max for the exp. period.
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:45 pm
I would like to know how did you calculate that you gained about $7,500 per coinflip
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:47 pm
"Best" relies on a person's perception. Flipping the max is the quickest way to ruin.
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:48 pm
Its an average, as i said. Amount won divided by number of flips
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How to make profit with coinflips Empty Re: How to make profit with coinflips

on Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:49 pm
Flipping the max every time has a 50% win rate how is that going to ruin
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